How many uninsured Americans does it take to create a health care crisis?
It seems more than there really are.
There are 46 million uninsured, we have been told over and over. Democrats use it. Republicans use it. Media use it. Economists use it.
And they are all wrong.
The Wall Street Journal explains why:
The Census Bureau estimates that the number of uninsured amounts to 45.7 million people. But the agency might be overcounting by millions due to faulty assumptions. Another problem: That 45.7 million figure includes undocumented immigrants, even though they aren’t likely to be covered under new laws.
But that hasn’t stopped both parties in Congress from using the flawed numbers liberally, as they debate health-care overhaul this summer. That’s a reprise of what happened 15 years ago, when the Clinton health plan foundered under differing cost estimates wielded by opponents. But such projections are even more uncertain than today’s fuzzy count of the uninsured, depending on tricky assumptions about people’s economic choices.
The numbers are important because they provide the key input for determining the projected cost and reach of any reform plan. If the numbers are not correct, the projections will not be either.
Why are the numbers wrong? There are several reasons. For instance, there are an estimated 6 million undocumented workers included in the number of uninsured, but they likely will not be covered.
As well, the Census Bureau assumptions in interpreting its data are highly suspect. It assumes that a high percentage of those refusing to answer the health care section of the census are uninsured. In its mandatory health care program, Massachusetts made similar assumptions. Its estimate of 650,000 persons was overstated by 39%.
Finally, no one can project with any validity the impact of new government regulations on employer-sponsored plans or the further fallout from the recession.
Put it all together and decisions are being made based on numbers that are incorrect, and quite possibly by a substantial amount.
There is only one equation that we know to be correct. Wrong inputs equal wrong policy.
Before Congress jumps again to throw a lifesaver to those without insurance, we need to better understand who is out there waiting for aid.
